![]() ![]() These changes tend to increase proportionately with warming if the Earth warmed only 2C in an aggressive mitigation scenario such as RCP2.6 rather than 4C, the percent change in precipitation would be roughly half as large. RCP2.6 (also sometimes referred to as “RCP3-PD”) is a “peak and decline” scenario where stringent mitigation… Read More RCP2.6: The RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are scenarios of future concentrations of greenhouse gases and other forcings. As such, a world that is around 4C warmer than the pre-industrial era would have around 28% more water vapour in the atmosphere. ![]() According to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the air can generally hold around 7% more moisture for every 1C of temperature rise. However, as the air warms its water-holding capacity increases, particularly over the oceans. ![]() With higher temperatures comes greater evaporation and surface drying, potentially contributing to the intensity and duration of drought. There are some basic physical processes that inform scientists’ expectations of how precipitation will respond in a warming world. In the fifth and final article in our week-long climate modelling series, Carbon Brief explores where the models agree and disagree about future changes in precipitation. While the models used by climate scientists generally agree on how different parts of the Earth will warm, there is much less agreement about where and how precipitation will change.
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